Monday, November 5, 2012

Election Prediction


So here is my final prediction on how the Presidential map will look like with President Obama being re-elected with 332 Electoral Votes to Mitt Romney's 206. I think Obama will get between 50-51% of the popular vote and Romney getting between 48-49%.

I am pretty bullish on Obama's chances for several reasons.

He has held consistent leads in polls in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada and he also has strong field operations in those states (if he wins these states and traditional Democratic states then he will get 271 thus winning even without any other swing state). While the polls are very close, Obama has had an edge in both Iowa and Virginia in the last batch of polling and his superior on the ground organization will put him over the top. Colorado and New Hampshire are very close, but I think the independents in those states will tend to come home for Obama given the recent Democratic change in those states. Florida was the most difficult decision since it has a Republican lean, but the fact that it was close late in the game means that the strong Obama organization will give him a better chance than Romney even though this is the state I'm most likely to be wrong about. Obama put up a good fight in North Carolina, but the Republican lean of the state will be too much for him to over come. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota where Romney made a late play have strong Democratic leans and will not move away from Obama.

Also the last batch of national polling all moved towards Obama either due to a Hurricane Sandy bump or because late deciders chose the President over Romney.

Obviously I can be completely be wrong about this and anything can happen in politics, but this is just my educated guess about what I think will happen.

p.s. Here are my final Senate predictions:

AZ: Rep
CT: Dem
IN: Dem
MA: Dem
MO: Dem
MT: Dem
ND: Rep
NV: Rep
VA: Dem
WI: Dem